- tonylearns said…
- Could someone go over to Goddard’s blog for me ( I have been banned three times most recently for having the gall to suggest he was wrong in ridiculing the possibility of a new record minimum SIE this year. ) and ask for his apology to Hansen for ridiculing the possibility of the West Side Highway being underwater. I just saw a video showing the West Side Highway underwater.
- 29/10/12 7:46 PM
No! Someone whose comments don’t show up at Steve Goddard’s blog? Must be some massive disruption in the force of the Tubes of the Interweb thingy.
What is this guy Tony on about?
At Steve Goddard’s blog — this is the same guy who said the western drought was over because Lake Powell rose a few feet, though the drought raged on everywhere else — Goddard and his flying and limping monkeys have been poking fun at something James Hansen is alleged to have said:
According to NASA’s top scientist, Manhattan has been underwater for the past four years, and is experiencing a horrific drought.
While doing research 12 or 13 years ago, I met Jim Hansen, the scientist who in 1988 predicted the greenhouse effect before Congress. I went over to the window with him and looked out on Broadway in New York City and said, “If what you’re saying about the greenhouse effect is true, is anything going to look different down there in 20 years?” He looked for a while and was quiet and didn’t say anything for a couple seconds. Then he said, “Well, there will be more traffic.” I, of course, didn’t think he heard the question right. Then he explained, “The West Side Highway [which runs along the Hudson River] will be under water. And there will be tape across the windows across the street because of high winds. And the same birds won’t be there. The trees in the median strip will change.” Then he said, “There will be more police cars.” Why? “Well, you know what happens to crime when the heat goes up.”
And so far, over the last 10 years, we’ve had 10 of the hottest years on record. [Quoting an article at Salon]
The West Side Highway under water? Ha.
Goddard’s blog has used Hansen’s quote as a regular punchline, not noticing that Hansen said “in 20 to 30 years,” and assuming he was just awfully, comically wrong. 30 years from 1988 will be 2018. This year is 2012, six years to go. Goddard tried to ridicule Hansen a few times over the past couple of years, for example:
- Here on October 4, 2010;
- Here on October 10, 2010;
- Here on November 13, 2010;
- Here on December 19, 2010 (with a photo of Al Gore, Barack Obama and an unidentified guy, maybe Goddard himself?);
- Here on January 15, 2011;
- Again on March 14, 2011;
- A special St. Patrick’s Day posting, March 17, 2011;
- Here on April 9, 2011;
- Here on May 22, 2011;
- Here on May 30, 2011; and obviously running out of comedy material, Goddard went for two in one day,
- Here on May 30, 2011, and by this time it’s such a regular meme attempting to mock James Hansen with same old material, Goddard doesn’t refer to the actual quote from Hansen;
- Here on June 15, 2011;
- Here on July 20, 2011;
- Here on July 21, 2011;
- Here on August 25, 2011;
- Here on May 7, 2012;
- Here on May 8, 2012;
- Here on May 23, 2012;
- June 25, 2012;
- August 9, 2012;
- August 23, 2012;
- August 31, 2012;
- September 28, 2012.
AP may complain about this use, but this is an academic, learning exercise:
Dylan Patrick got the photographic evidence that shows, once again, warming denialists really are a classless, fact-lacking bunch. CNN has photos from Dylanphoto1 (the same guy, almost certainly), in a slide show, noting, “Most of the Westside Highway south of 49th street is flooded all the way down, and in front of the USS Intrepid.” Across from Pier 88 and the USS Intrepid, the street is indeed underwater.
So we learn that, as a comedian, Steve Goddard has an extremely limited range and depends on a sympathetic room to get laughs; and as a climate scientist, he is even more limited, and wrong, with 6 years to go in the 20 to 30 year range James Hansen offered. And we learn once again, sadly, that James Hansen was right back in 1988 when he hit the claxons to warn us of global warming.
23 times Goddard repeated the charge? Do you get the idea that “climate skeptics” ran out of material years ago, and have been dancing a cover-up for a very, very long time? Hurricane Sandy blew and floated his claim away.
More:
- New Denialist Meme: Obama Created Sandy to Help His Election (climatecrocks.com)
- George Lakoff: Global Warming Systemically Caused Hurricane Sandy (huffingtonpost.com)
- Gregory Unruh: Climate Crimes Against Humanity (huffingtonpost.com)
- James Hansen, Climate Change Scientist, Suggests Price On Carbon (huffingtonpost.com)
- Sandy on the Hudson (newyorker.com)
- Photos of New York City Underwater from Hurricane Sandy Flooding (treehugger.com)
- Yes, Climate Change Caused Hurricane Sandy (gizmodo.co.uk)
- “What sort of crazy is the warming denialist?” (Millard Fillmore’s Bathtub)
- Pure political smear from Walter Williams [on Paul Ehrlich] (Millard Fillmore’s Bathtub)
- “Wind Power: More than just talk” (Millard Fillmore’s Bathtub)
- “Chronic drought complicated by chronic denialism” (Millard Fillmore’s Bathtub)
- “Climate denialists on Texas weather, 2011: Ain’t no drought, on average” (Millard Fillmore’s Bathtub)
- “Lies, damned lies, statistics, and Steve Goddard’s computer animation” (Millard Fillmore’s Bathtub)
- “Annals of global warming: Insurance companies note increasing costs of floods due to climate change” (Millard Fillmore’s Bathtub)
Even more, a bit later:
- At Open Mind, Tamino asks, and answers, “Who could have seen it coming?”
- Goddard’s spin
- “Peer review research predicting NYC subway flooding by #Sandy,” Greg Laden’s blog
- Also at Greg Laden’s blog: “Storms of My Children – Free chapter”: [quote] Storms of My Grandchildren is a book by James Hansen that outlines the science behind increasing storminess associated with global warming, and covers key events in the recent history of the politics of climate change science denialism. It is a good book. The National Center for Science Education is now giving away a preview exerpt of the book, in a PDF file, which you can have by clicking here and it will be magically delivered to your computer. So there you go! [end quote]
- Also at Open Mind, a post explaining storm surges as an indicator of climate change
- Tommaso Dorigo posted a piece comparing and contrasting New York’s surge issues with those in Venice
- Skeptical Science covered this issue some time ago. In comments someone posted yet another photo showing the highway underwater.
- And even more later – November 19, 2012 – we might wonder how our friends at Climate Sanity responded to Sandy; as of this writing, not at all, still clinging to the idea that Manhattan “would adapt” nicely to rises in sea level, and using scifi movies as straw men.
A guy named Bill Jamison posted this at Watching the Deniers, “Leaked IPCC report”:
To which John Byatt responded:
Another photo of the West Side Highway underwater, and a confirmation of Hansen’s prediction, over Goddard’s misexplanations.
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[…] I noted in an earlier post, on October 30 of last year: […]
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[…] stick” graph is vindicated; more evidence that we should not regard James Hansen as we did Cassandra, but should instead heed his […]
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[…] stop the shutdown of the subways and electrical grid due to the Sandy storm surge at high tide, and noting that the ridicule heaped by denialists on those who tried to warn us about such storms, I asked at Climate Sanity about updates on their rosy “What? Us worry?” view of […]
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[…] the writing of this article, Hurricane Sandy faceplanted on the East coast, fulfilling another of Hansen’s predictions – the flooding of West Side Highway. ** The original source cited (Edmunds.com) does briefly […]
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[…] effetti… h/t la bagnaruola e il lagomorfo (che ha anche un ottimo post sulla chimica dei solfati, intesi come […]
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> he expected the NORMAL SEA LEVEL to be flooding
Because, like, nobody uses anything but present tense?
If he’d been reported as having said that he would expect it to have been flooded by then, you’d agree that’s happened already?
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I misunderstood? By all means, take as much space here to explain what you meant, then. Go ahead.
Any time.
Now would be good.
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Earthling.
The 20 year figure was from the Salon article. The real information is in the book Reiss wrote. the details are described below. you should read all the comments before making assertions.
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Morgan, does it give you any pause at all that so many so-called conservatives, and climate change denialists, will predict over and over that the rains won’t come?
Does it ever give you pause to realize that it wasn’t the rain that did the damage here? The water that flooded the New York Subway and the West Side Highway wasn’t from excessive rain.
So much denial, so little understanding.
You got all that from “it will rain?” (Which it will, by the way.)
That’s what I like about you, Ed. You use the word “misunderstanding” the way a dog uses barking. A crazy junkyard dog. Nobody who reaches a different conclusion ever understands anything.
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Bob Reiss is a climate alarmist, not a climate science “denier” and he’s the guy who reported what Hansen said to him” and there was no mention of “in 20 to 30 years,” only 20 years.
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[…] […]
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[…] Storms of My Children […]
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Is that what Hansen said, that water would cover the highway permanently? No. Is that what Steve Goddard said Hansen said? No. The blogger known as Steve Goddard loves to distort what is said, often without understanding what he’s distorting — one of his early postings shows the elevated portion of the West Side Highway. I’m sure he thought that ten feet of elevation would be enough to keep the highway dry forever, because he’s probably deluded enough to think sea level isn’t really rising. The danger from rising sea level isn’t that it creeps slowly up and covers roads — you can add a couple of feet of concrete to get above water in that case, at only a few extra billions of dollars. The danger is exactly what we saw — a modest, though large, Category I hurricane that, with the boost from higher sea level, inundates much farther inland than anyone was prepared for, and does great destruction as a result.
Denialists, Goddard and his comrades in buffoonery, thought they had a ha-ha argument — sort of like Christopher Monckton with his wholly reprehensible claim that Jackie Kennedy “tugged on Jack’s pyjamas” to get him to appoint William Ruckelshaus as head of EPA solely to ban DDT for her “old friend” Rachel Carson. The deceipt runs so deep in pursuit of snark that it’s really ugly, you know?
David, let me give you some gambler’s advice, from Damon Runyon via Frank Loesser:
Hansen WAS clocking sea level rise, and the Goddards of the world should know it. Goddard has an earful of cider, no cheesecake, he’s out the thousand dollars, and he forgot he wasn’t even wearing a tie today.
You’re trying to argue whether the cheesecake was topped with fruit or not. No, Goddard wasn’t sitting on the cheesecake.
Just keep reading the excerpt until it gets to you.
The deck is stacked. Hansen knows how it’s stacked, plus he counts cards. Don’t bet against him, or your other ear will have cider in it, too.
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so the water over the west Side highway will be from now on? As a consequence of ‘global warming’ aka ‘climate change’ the sea level has rose? We will test your prediction …me think it storm surge.
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I really need to think this one over long and hard. Yeah. Cause it’s just so difficult to differentiate between what possible skin oil, gas and coal companies and their paid scientists have in the game.
I mean, it’s not like they stand to profit to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars like science faculty at every college or university from UC Berkley to Wheaton College. Those guys — man. What a bunch of money grubbers.
::: saying prayers for Exxon, Massey Energy and BP :::
Watch over them, Lord. And bless them for looking out for the interests of us common folks.
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Who the hell is this “Steven Goddard” character anyway? Another ten-apenny bought-and-paid-for denier with no credibility or scientific track record (apart from being repetetively and embarrassingly wrong) whatsoever. Why is this galoot given the time of day by rational people?.
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Feh, obviously he was wrong. NYC had already convened a bunch of US experts to study ways to mitigate against rising sea levels *and* increased danger of storm surges and rainfall from more energetic storms, years ago (long after Hansen was interviewed, but the key point here is *US experts*, not *Dutch experts*, therefore climate science is a fraud). Of course, none of the schemes they’ve been contemplating – they’re still in think tank mode – have been moved forward to the planning and implementation stage, but again … they’re not Dutch. Hansen has clearly been proven wrong.
All sarcasm aside, fortunately Bloomberg seems to be one Republican who’s not a total idiot, and the noise he’s making makes it clear that speeding the planning process for mitigation is on the agenda for being fast-tracked.
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Lower Manhattan also flooded during a storm surge in 1821.
http://www.nyc.gov/html/oem/html/hazards/storms_hurricanehistory.shtml
Hopefully you people aren’t as dense as you pretend to be.
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Who could have seen it coming?
Chris Mooney looks so young in this thing; found at Tamino’s blog:
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For Ed Darrell – the Bob Reiss book that has the original account of his meeting with Hansen is called “The Coming Storm: Extreme Weather and our Terrifying Future”. I found a copy in the local library while arguing with a “skeptic” on a different forum. I didn’t like the book much, a lot of human interest anecdote, not much science, and a lack of indexing that made it a pain to find the actual quote.
But the book unequivocally shows that Hansen was talking about 2030 in response to a hypothetical about doubled CO2, which is not what Goddard would have people believe.
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whatnonsense said:
Perhaps you can show somewhere I’ve confused weather with climate? Predicted and continuing sea level rise provides greater dangers during extreme weather, no? Can you show us someone who says otherwise?
So, you allege that climate change only functions when it is not storming, never when precipitation falls, never when the winds blow? I’m not sure why you think Goddard gets a pass on being so spectacularly wrong in this case — are you telling him he should have considered weather instead of making his erroneous statements?
Do you have some citations for any study that indicates nothing about this super storm is affected, and affected greatly, by the warming we’ve seen in the current round of climate change? Would love to see the citations and read the study.
Did you actually wager money on the basis of Goddard’s claims? You poor sucker.
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Go look at the photos and illustrations at Goddard’s blog (he’ll love the traffic). He’s got maps and photos of the area dating back to 1660, and he says none of them will flood, that Hansen is wrong on any version of reality.
A line in the sand can be erased, or covered over. The Great Wall of China stands a while. Goddard didn’t mince any words. He claimed warming is over, sea level rise is not happening, and he expressed doubt that storms provide much to worry about in the future, too. When his claims are so dramatically proven wrong, it’s not time to equivocate.
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Morgan, does it give you any pause at all that so many so-called conservatives, and climate change denialists, will predict over and over that the rains won’t come?
Does it ever give you pause to realize that it wasn’t the rain that did the damage here? The water that flooded the New York Subway and the West Side Highway wasn’t from excessive rain.
So much denial, so little understanding.
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Thanks for the actual quotes, Azul_R — what was the book?
I’m well aware of all the problems and qualifications on Hansen’s statement. But I’m also aware of the polemical intent of Steve Goddard, and other denialists and obstructionists like Anthony Watts or Christopher Monckton or Sens. Inofe or Coburn, or real befuddleds like Rand Paul. Goddard did not passingly wonder about the accuracy of the statement, nor even the accuracy of the quoting — he latched hard on a part of the alleged statement, and no fewer than 23 times hammered at Hansen, claiming Hansen to be a poor scientist and a liar, and heaping other calumny on the man.
For those who believe in gods, the gods demonstrated their point. For those who simply wonder about the issue, Sandy answered that Hansen is correct and should be listened to, in perhaps the only language that might give a hardened nonrealist pause (like Goddard in this case). The Westside Highway was, indeed, underwater.
Want to wager whether Goddard will delete those messages, or alter them so he doesn’t look so dramatically wrong?
There are serious policy issues involved here. Warming is not something that can be handled with just a few stack scrubbers here and there, nor with catalytic converters, as expensive as they are, nor with a ban on certain propellents in spray cans. As a nation, as a planet, we have met serious environmental challenges in the past — but generally when policy makers had the advantage of being able to listen to good science from good scientists.
Goddard and his fellow travelers use ridicule as their major currency. We need fact and hard analysis instead. Anyone with the ability to look at the photographs knows, now, that Goddard is wrong, and Hansen had a serious point.
There’s the old saw about people who run hard into the truth, and then pick themselves up and run off as if nothing had happened. We’ve got damages upward of $5 billion from this storm, five dozen dead in the U.S. and more dozens in other places, the largest mass transit system in the world immobilized, one of the world’s largest cities paralyzed at least briefly . . . how many times does that apple have to hit you on the head before you move, Newton?
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Does anybody know at which version of the highway Hansen was looking? Wikipedia indicates much of it was torn down. At what elevation is its replacement?
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The quote was misleading when Goddard used it and is misleading here.
It comes from Bob Reiss, talking to Salon about his memory of talking with Hansen some years before when he was writing a book. The trouble is that his recollection was incorrect. He admitted this, but of course the fake “skeptics” had latched on to what was now a supposed Hansen prediction.
This wasn’t Hansen’s best guess for 20 years out, it was Hansen answering a hypothetical for what things would be like if CO2 doubled. The best evidence for what Hansen said is what Reiss wrote in his book.
The relevant parts of the book are on pages 30 and 31. The syntax is tortured because Reiss is trying to look ahead from having set himself back in the past to describe Hansen’s testimony in 1988. My bold in the extract:
[QUOTE]
..the reporter would ask the scientist whether, if he was right, and the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere really [B]doubled[/B], anything down there would look different because of it by [B]2030[/B]. Would average people notice any changes?
Hansen would say, “There will be more traffic on Broadway”. “Why” the puzzled reporter would ask, thinking at first that Hansen had not heard the question right.
“Because the West Side Highway will be underwater … You might see Dutch engineers down there, to build dikes. The Dutch could sell their expertise in building dikes in New York, Florida. Lousiana.”
“Dikes,” the reporter would ask, stunned.
“[B]As the warming progresses[/B],” Hansen would continue, “and droughts get more severe, you might see signs in restaurants, ‘Water by Request Only’. Hurricanes and thunderstorms will be more frequent. You might see tape X’d on windows across the street, against wind.
“And you’d see more police cars. Crime goes up in summers, with the heat.
[/QUOTE]
So, not “20 years” as per the original quote with the misremembered date (and not “40 years” as some corrections have it). A target date of 2030, and more than that, a condition of doubled CO2, which is way beyond current predictions for emissions. Furthermore, the “as warming progresses” implies that the remainder of the predictions are for some indeterminate time later.
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Ed, it’s 40 years (from 1988), not 20-30. Moreover, there was an additional caveat: doubling of CO2 by that time. And finally, he was asked for changes that *might* happen, which is a request to come with the upper boundary of likely events, not necessarily the most likely event. It can all be read in Bob Reiss’ book.
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whatnonsensse,
Did you read my comment. i explaiend that Goddard was proven incontrovertably wrong about the date of Hansen’s quote. Over and over I showed him that in Reiss’s book he writes that it would be around 2028- 49 years, not 20 years, and that it was an informal question that included a doubling of CO2. Yet goddard continued to lie about it, as he still continues to lie about it. Yes Hansen was talking about sea level rise, but he was ALSO talking about storm surge. This WAS due to storm surge from a freak storm that caused the most devastation NY has ever seen. Saying it cold have nothing to do with ACC is denying a very reasonable possibility.
making an absolute asserrtion of that nature is about as unscientific as one can get.
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It will rain, Ed. It will rain.
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[…] change nuts fail to distinguish between storm surge and rising sea levels. What […]
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[…] change nuts fail to distinguish between storm surge and rising sea levels. What […]
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Ed,
I am not claiming the highway wasn’t flooded – it obviously is. The issue is Hansens’ claim. If you want to put the spin that one storm ( or even maybe a few more in the next many years) that results in flooding the highway for a day or two proves Hansen is correct, that is your choice.
My statement was that anyone who reads the Hansen claim – or should I say ‘alleged claim’ – woud NEVER logically expected that claim to be ‘validated’ by one storm and a high storm surge.
Now, I’ll give you this – if by 2018, sea levels rose to the point where at high tide, even at a full moon or new moon, if the sea level covered the highway. then I would grant that Hansen was correct.
But not from a storm surge several feet higher than high tide would have been without the storm.
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Whatnonsense<
there is no sure way to know at this point if Sandy was partially a result of climate change. We DO know that it was a HUGE storm with a tremendous amount of total energy which is consistent with ACC theory. As well as it being this far north.
the point of this post however is that Goddard is an ideological fanatic who can never admit a mistake. He spent april to august ridiculing the idea of a SIE record minumum in the arctic and then banned me right before it happened because I had been calling him on his absurdity for the whole time
he lied about the Hansen quote when i repeatedly proved to him that reiss' quote was wrong about it being 2008. It was actually 2028, but it was an informal interview where reiss asked him what would happen with a doubling of CO2 which will not happen until after that date anyway
SO not only did Goddard lie repeatedly about that, but he ridiculed the notion of the West side highway being underwater, and voila it IS. Hansen was talking about things like storm surge even though he was referring to sea level rise. Which of course played very little role in this storm
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Please read the article, and don’t assume it says something it doesn’t say.
Don’t claim the water did not go where the photos show.
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Holy cow, you’re going use a storm surge as ‘proof’ that Hansen was right. How idiotic can you be?
Any logical person reading Hansen’s claim would clearly state that he expected the NORMAL SEA LEVEL to be flooding the west side highway.
Ridiculous doesn’t even begin to describe this article . . .
.
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This all seems pretty clear, and simple to me. James Hansen said he feared water would rise over the West Side Highway. Steve Goddard tried to ridicule Hansen’s claim, with two dozen pokes over the past two years.
Yesterday, the ocean rose over the West Side Highway.
I’m making no statement about climate or weather, only noting that Hansen was right, and Goddard appears to be the fool on this one.
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Sandy…..if the shoe fits they will make use of it to promote their agenda. And of course the snows that fell are due to AGW and the fact that I was freezing tonight going to the grocery store (upstate NY) is probably also from AGW.
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Hi Steve:)
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Stop confusing Weather with Climate, and stop using the hardship of other people to push your idiotic agendas.
Sandy has absolutely nothing to do with “climate change”l it has nothing to do with the the so-called “greenhouse effect” t is a scientifically absurd assertion
It goes to show that you have no grasp of science altogether.
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[…] Ouch! Warming denialists’ claims blown away by Sandy « Millard Fillmore’s Bathtub […]
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