## Wind power fastest growing energy segment?

August 6, 2013

It was a Tweet from the Secretary of Energy, Ernest Moniz, so it must be so:

Wind Technologies Market Report 2012, from the U.S. Department of Energy

Generally good trends.  Chris Clarke and the Californians defending the deserts think windfarms are blots on the California deserts — and they’re right — but we can find lots of other places to put them in.

Texas showed greatest growth in windpower among the states.  South Dakota, Iowa and Kansas now get more than 20% of their electricity from wind generation.

Work needs to be done to make these bird-friendlier, especially friendlier to raptors. Solvable problems, I think.

What do you think?

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## August 6: Hiroshima atomic bomb, 68 years ago today

August 6, 2013

A-Bomb Dome in Hiroshima, Japan Wikipedia image

As a Utah Downwinder, I fight depressing ideas every August 6, and August 9.

The first atomic bomb used in war was dropped by my nation on August 6, 1945.  The second, on August 9.  Hiroshima, then Nagasaki, were the targets.

I know the arguments, both ways.  I feel certain my Uncle Leo B. Stewart’s life was saved by the bombs — and the lives of probably two or three million more Americans, and five or ten million Japanese.  And still I am troubled.

I’m troubled that there seems to be so little attention paid to the anniversary in the U.S.  Year by year, it gets tougher to get news out of remembrance ceremonies in Japan.  Here are some Twitter notes on the day.  I may be back with more, later.

This comes from a pseudo-Truman, but it’s an accurate reflection of the angst Truman went through; once he made the decision, he did not have doubts that it was the right one.

Fortunately, in 68 years since, no other nuclear device has ever been used in war. May we have a planet that never sees their use in war, again.

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August 6, 2013

## 2012 was one of the 10 warmest years on record globally

### The end of weak La Niña, unprecedented Arctic warmth influenced 2012 climate conditions

August 6, 2013

The 2012 State of the Climate report is available online.
(Credit: NOAA)

Worldwide, 2012 was among the 10 warmest years on record according to the 2012 State of the Climate report released online today by the American Meteorological Society (AMS). The peer-reviewed report, with scientists from NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C., serving as lead editors, was compiled by 384 scientists from 52 countries (highlights, full report). It provides a detailed update on global climate indicators, notable weather events, and other data collected by environmental monitoring stations and instruments on land, sea, ice, and sky.

“Many of the events that made 2012 such an interesting year are part of the long-term trends we see in a changing and varying climate — carbon levels are climbing, sea levels are rising, Arctic sea ice is melting, and our planet as a whole is becoming a warmer place,” said Acting NOAA Administrator Kathryn D. Sullivan, Ph.D. “This annual report is well-researched, well-respected, and well-used; it is a superb example of the timely, actionable climate information that people need from NOAA to help prepare for extremes in our ever-changing environment.”

Conditions in the Arctic were a major story of 2012, with the region experiencing unprecedented change and breaking several records. Sea ice shrank to its smallest “summer minimum” extent since satellite records began 34 years ago. In addition, more than 97 percent of the Greenland ice sheet showed some form of melt during the summer, four times greater than the 1981–2010 average melt extent.

Temperature in 2012 compared to the 1981-2010 average. Credit: NOAA Climate.gov, based on NCDC data. See more.

The report used dozens of climate indicators to track and identify changes and overall trends to the global climate system. These indicators include greenhouse gas concentrations, temperature of the lower and upper atmosphere, cloud cover, sea surface temperature, sea-level rise, ocean salinity, sea ice extent and snow cover. Each indicator includes thousands of measurements from multiple independent datasets.

Highlights:

• Warm temperature trends continue near Earth’s surface: Four major independent datasets show 2012 was among the 10 warmest years on record, ranking either 8th or 9th, depending upon the dataset used. The United States and Argentina had their warmest year on record.
• La Niña dissipates into neutral conditions:  A weak La Niña dissipated during spring 2012 and, for the first time in several years, neither El Niño nor La Niña, which can dominate regional weather and climate conditions around the globe, prevailed for the majority of the year.
• The Arctic continues to warm; sea ice extent reaches record low: The Arctic continued to warm at about twice the rate compared with lower latitudes. Minimum Arctic sea ice extent in September and Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent in June each reached new record lows. Arctic sea ice minimum extent (1.32 million square miles, September 16) was the lowest of the satellite era. This is 18 percent lower than the previous record low extent of 1.61 million square miles that occurred in 2007 and 54 percent lower than the record high minimum ice extent of 2.90 million square miles that occurred in 1980. The temperature of permafrost, or permanently frozen land, reached record-high values in northernmost Alaska. A new melt extent record occurred July 11–12 on the Greenland ice sheet when 97 percent of the ice sheet showed some form of melt, four times greater than the average melt this time of year.
• Antarctica sea ice extent reaches record high: The Antarctic maximum sea ice extent reached a record high of 7.51 million square miles on September 26. This is 0.5 percent higher than the previous record high extent of 7.47 million square miles that occurred in 2006 and seven percent higher than the record low maximum sea ice extent of 6.96 million square miles that occurred in 1986.
• Sea surface temperatures increase: Four independent datasets indicate that the globally averaged sea surface temperature for 2012 was among the 11 warmest on record.  After a 30-year period from 1970 to 1999 of rising global sea surface temperatures, the period 2000–2012 exhibited little trend. Part of this difference is linked to the prevalence of La Niña-like conditions during the 21st century, which typically lead to lower global sea surface temperatures.
• Ocean heat content remains near record levels: Heat content in the upper 2,300 feet, or a little less than one-half mile, of the ocean remained near record high levels in 2012. Overall increases from 2011 to 2012 occurred between depths of 2,300 to 6,600 feet and even in the deep ocean.
• Sea level reaches record high: Following sharp decreases in global sea level in the first half of 2011 that were linked to the effects of La Niña, sea levels rebounded to reach record highs in 2012. Globally, sea level has been increasing at an average rate of 3.2 ± 0.4 mm per year over the past two decades.
• Ocean salinity trends continue: Continuing a trend that began in 2004, oceans were saltier than average in areas of high evaporation, including the central tropical North Pacific, and fresher than average in areas of high precipitation, including the north central Indian Ocean, suggesting that precipitation is increasing in already rainy areas and evaporation is intensifying in drier locations.

Sea ice concentration reached a new record low in mid-September 2012. Credit: NOAA Climate.gov, based on NSIDC data. See more.

• Tropical cyclones near average: Global tropical cyclone activity during 2012 was near average, with a total of 84 storms, compared with the 1981–2010 average of 89. Similar to 2010 and 2011, the North Atlantic was the only hurricane basin that experienced above-normal activity.
• Greenhouse gases climb: Major greenhouse gas concentrations, including carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, continued to rise during 2012. Following a slight decline in manmade emissions associated with the global economic downturn, global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production reached a record high in 2011 of 9.5 ± 0.5 petagrams (1,000,000,000,000,000 grams) of carbon , and a new record of 9.7 ± 0.5 petagrams of carbon  is estimated for 2012. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations increased by 2.1 ppm in 2012, reaching a global average of 392.6 ppm for the year. In spring 2012, for the first time, the atmospheric CO2concentration exceeded 400 ppm at several Arctic observational sites.
• Cool temperature trends continue in Earth’s lower stratosphere: The average lower stratospheric temperature, about six to ten miles above the Earth’s surface, for 2012 was record to near-record cold, depending on the dataset. Increasing greenhouse gases and decline of stratospheric ozone tend to cool the stratosphere while warming the planet near-surface layers.

The 2012 State of the Climate report is peer-reviewed and published annually as a special supplement to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. This year marks the 23rd edition of the report, which is part of the suite of climate services NOAA provides to government, the business sector, academia, and the public to support informed decision-making. The full report can be viewed online.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on FacebookTwitter and our other social media channels.

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## Remembering Mermelstein the Hero, a day late

August 6, 2013

It’s a big world.  A lot happens every day.

Over time, significantly historic events tend to pile up on every day of the year.  This is important to remember shortly after the ides of April when students — almost always male — start going on about Hitler’s birthday, Hitler’s suicide, and any other events that may fall on those days.  It’s good to remember coincidence plays a huge role in history, much more than those looking for woo connections will admit.

But I also like to celebrate important events.  Yesterday I posted on Damn the Torpedoes Day, the anniversary of the Battle of Mobile Bay and then-Capt. David Farragut’s famous line.

Doing that, and a dozen other things, I completely overlooked another anniversary that carries a lot of weight with me, and I hope with you, too.  I was reminded this morning when I saw the post from Professor Olsen @ Large, noting the day Mel Mermelstein beat the Holocaust deniers in court, and established in U.S. law the historical fact of the Holocaust.

On this date [August 5], Long Beach, California businessman Melvin Mermelstein struck a powerful blow against bogus history and historical hoaxes. Mel was awarded a judgment in a California court, in a contract case.

In 1980, the Institute for Historical Review (IHR), a Torrance, California organization that claimed that the planned extermination of Jews by the Nazis was a myth, had offered a $50,000 reward for anyone who could prove that the Holocaust actually happened. * * * * * Mermelstein’s lawyer, William John Cox, had a brilliant idea. He petitioned the court to take “judicial notice” of the fact of the Holocaust. The doctrine of judicial notice allows courts to recognize as fact something that is so well established that it doesn’t need to be evidenced when it is introduced in court — such as, 2 + 2 = 4, the freezing point of water is 32 degrees Fahrenheit and 0 degrees Celsius, the Earth orbits the Sun, etc. In a pre-trial hearing on 9 October 1981, Los Angeles County Superior Court Judge Thomas T. Johnson resolved the most controversial part of the case; the court ruled that the Holocaust had occurred. The judge declared: Under Evidence Code Section 452(h), this court does take judicial notice of the fact that Jews were gassed to death at the Auschwitz Concentration Camp in Poland during the summer of 1944. (…) It just simply is a fact that falls within the definition of Evidence Code Section 452(h). It is not reasonably subject to dispute. And it is capable of immediate and accurate determination by resort to sources of reasonably indisputable accuracy. It is simply a fact. That ruling meant that, by operation of law, Mermelstein had won the case, obviating the need for a court trial. Prof. Olsen has much more — go read — and I’ve listed my previous posts on Mel Mermelstein below. There were two points of law in the case that delighted me. One was the sweepstakes contract, and the other was the judicial note. A sweepstakes contract is one where someone makes an offer, “the first one who does X, gets$,” for example.  While it’s a bit obscure, it is a point of contract law that sweepstakes contracts are enforceable in court (common law, as most contract law is).  Willis Carto‘s Holocaust denial group, the Institute for Historical Review (IHR), hadn’t realized that they made a bona fide, potentially legally-binding offer.  Mermelstein did, performed the required task, and demanded payment.  When IHR refused to pay, Mermelstein hauled them into court.

Judicial note is another oddity of law school, that I think is probably used way too seldom to squelch stupid lawsuits.  The rule — again in common law — is that a judge may take note of certain facts so they need not be evidenced and “proven” in court, over and over again.  The sky is blue, most of the time (black at night); boiling water is hot; 2+2=4 — those are the sorts of facts that judges may rule need not be evidenced at every trial where they might play a role.  Mermelstein’s lawyer, William John Cox — another hero, along with Lawrence E. Heller and all of Mermelstein’s lawyers — moved that the court take judicial note of the fact of the Holocaust.  The judge held a hearing, and did.

That meant there was no issue to take to trial in Mermelstein’s suit against IHR.  Where IHR had probably hoped for a chance to trot out their denialists claims, perhaps for broadcast and print media, the issue was now one solely for the judge to rule on the points of law — and on those points, Mermelstein won.  IHR had to pay him.

Plus, it was established in California, that the Holocaust did occur.  As a point of law, Holocause denialists are wrong.

August 5 should be Accurate History Day, too.

You could combine the lessons of history from David Farragut, Mel Mermelstein, and Davey Crockett, and get a good philosophy.  Davey Crockett said, be sure you’re right, then go ahead.

Get your history right, stand up for human rights, and damn the torpedoes!

I could live with that.

Tree of Testimony from victims of the Holocaust, at the Los Angeles Museum of the Holocaust; dozens of interviews of survivors were taped by researchers at the University of Southern California, displayed on these video screens.

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## Edward Tufte channels Richard Feynman

August 6, 2013

Tufte writes at great length — well, writes and demonstrates — about yellow warning signs.  (Yes, that Edward Tufte.)

In one of his demonstrations, the art comes from the ideas and sayings of Richard Feynman.

Edward Tufte makes art out of Feynman’s ideas. Sorta. Edward Tufte, Nature Cannot Be Fooled, print on canvas, 78″ x 27 ½”, edition of 3

This guy makes money doing that? What kind of charmed life is that?

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Just how fitting is it that Tufte uses the words of Feynman, probably more famous for Feynman diagrams than the work that got him a Nobel?

“Picture of a Feynman diagram, inscribed by Richard P. Feynman to me [who MFB has not identified], in my copy of Volume 3 of his Feynman Lectures on Physics (Quantum Mechanics). Picture taken by self. if you can’t read the symbols, they are \gamma_\mu to \gamma_\mu and 1/q^2 .” Wikipedia image

Edward Tufte giving a class and holding a scanned copy of a first edition book by Galileo. Wikipedia image